Terenzio Longobardi
who follows the trend in oil prices will have noticed that a few months futures traded on the London market (Brent) exceeded one hundred U.S. dollars a barrel and rising exceeded those traded on the market New York (WTI), today just over $ 90 a barrel.
This article in Il Sole 24 Ore, Andrea Franceschi is exercised in an analysis of the phenomenon that brings up a number of factors, including the inevitable speculation. But journalists Italian business look very much like the ostrich in Australia and prefer to bury our heads in the sand, ignoring the physical aspect of the problem and that is the rapid depletion of the Brent oil reference, that is produced from fields in the North Sea.
The peak of the oil there was around 2000 and in recent years the decline has taken on staggering proportions. The following graph, taken from The Oil Drum, it is possible to observe the collapse of production in the last two years: The North Sea, which includes "United Kingdom Offshore, Norway, Denmark, Netherlands Offshore, Offshore and Germany" has lost 20% of its production in 24 months. Production decreased by 600,000 barrels per day during this period. "
From rough knowledge of economic theory, as I am, I'm thinking that perhaps a drop in supply, so consistent, some influence on prices should have.
In fact, we read on Wall Street Italy, "there 'who, like Chris Cook, a former International Petroleum Exchange, pay attention to changes in production in the North Sea, fell by double digits in four years. New exploration permits will be continuously advanced in the North Sea so 'as new discoveries are made but in general, Cook concluded, nothing can' change course to the decline in production. "
The moral economy: the dynamics of supply and demand is "fundamental" in the pricing and I can not conclude without comment on this blog pointed out an article that makes this clear correlation between the trend in oil prices and economic output (GDP). This enables us to further reflect on the fact that the advance of the global economic recovery will inevitably be accompanied by a continuous rise in prices of a barrel that beyond a certain level, it will trigger a new downward spiral.
Source www.aspoitalia.it
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